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Preface

What most commercial companies call a risk register is in fact an ambiguity register. A real
risk register is able to predict the likelihood of an event happening, based on predictive
algorithms looking at historical data, in contrast to simply “best-guessing” based on gut
feel. However, what you need for a business, is not a risk register but an ambiguity register.
So, when we refer to a risk register throughout this document, you now know that we are
actually talking about ambiguity, which is a best guess.

In the realm of “uncertainty”

there are three segments: Ambiguity is

• Risk, where the probability can be
forecast based on historic data, best guess
The Petro-chemical industry is one
such example. probability

• Ambiguity, where the probability and
business impact are best guesses based
on a little data and a lot of gut instinct.

• No idea at all.

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